JPMorgan cuts H2 2026 Brent outlook, sees $64 average in 2027

AnalystCommodity
โดย TheStreet·Read original
Summary · why it matters

JPMorgan lowered its second-half 2026 Brent crude price forecast, citing weaker-than-expected OECD commercial inventory draws and larger demand losses. The bank now projects Brent averaging $86 per barrel in the third quarter and $80 in the fourth quarter, exiting 2026 at $78, before dropping to a $64 average in 2027. JPMorgan warned that an oversupply expected in late 2026 and early 2027 will likely require OPEC+ production curtailments, with seven countries—Venezuela, Iran, Brazil, Guyana, Argentina, Canada, and the United States—all projected to grow supply simultaneously in 2027. The bank noted that private operators largely refused to draw down commercial stocks during the Strait of Hormuz crisis, relying instead on government Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, which means the usual post-shock inventory rebuilding demand is absent. JPMorgan's 2027 call of $64 is significantly below Goldman Sachs' $75, reflecting a more skeptical view of OPEC+ cohesion.

Impact on stocks 2

Digital Finance & Tokenization▼ · 1 stocks
JPMorgan Chase & Co
JPM
▼ NegativeCapitalrelevance

JPMorgan itself cut its Brent forecast, reflecting a bearish outlook on oil prices that could impact its commodity trading and investment banking revenues.

Financials▼ · 1 stocks
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
GS
▼ NegativeCapitalrelevance

JPMorgan's lower Brent forecast contrasts with Goldman Sachs' $75, implying Goldman's view may be overly optimistic, potentially affecting its commodity research credibility.

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