JPMorgan Maps S&P 500 Scenarios Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

MacroDigital Finance Impact 4
โดย Benzinga·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

JPMorgan says the S&P 500 could swing from 1% higher to 2% lower depending on how Fed Chair Kevin Warsh frames Wednesday's expected rate hike. A 25-basis-point hike is largely priced in, with Polymarket traders putting the odds at 89% versus 11% for no change and roughly $193 million traded on the decision. The bank estimates a surprise hold would send the index down 1.25% to 1.75%, while a hike with little guidance could lift it 0.25% to 0.75%. JPMorgan's most bullish scenario, a hike paired with a signal that the Fed is simply unwinding the 75 basis points of easing delivered in 2025, sees the S&P rising 0.5% to 1%, while a signal that rates must rise materially further points to a 1% to 2% decline. The Fed releases its decision and updated economic projections at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m.

Impact on stocks 3

Digital Finance & Tokenization▲ · 1 stocks
JPMorgan Chase & Co
JPM
± MixedMonetaryrelevance

JPMorgan is the source of the S&P 500 scenario analysis tied to the Fed's expected rate hike, but the news is about the market outlook rather than a company-specific development.

Others▲ · 2 stocks
％Effective Federal Funds Rate
EFFR
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

A 25-basis-point Fed rate hike is largely priced in and expected, pushing the effective federal funds rate yield higher.

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