JPMorgan quants warn of rising risk in crowded semiconductor trade

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JPMorgan's quantitative strategy team warns that rising volatility and stretched positioning in semiconductor stocks are raising the risk of more frequent and disruptive selloffs. Analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou highlighted that the combination of these factors could lead to more semiconductor 'VaR shocks,' citing the early June episode as a recent example. The bank flagged concentration risk, where the growing share of semiconductor stocks can force mechanical selling when funds hit self-imposed risk limits, and valuation concerns, noting that the ratio of semiconductors' market capitalization share to their revenue share in global equity indices has surpassed 6x, more than double the equivalent ratio for the Magnificent Seven stocks when Tesla is replaced with Broadcom within the S&P 500. Panigirtzoglou also estimated around $165 billion of equity selling and bond buying due to quarter-end and month-end rebalancing at June close, a flow dynamic that could amplify semiconductor volatility. Additionally, JPMorgan noted that heightened hash rate sensitivity to bitcoin prices indicates more miners are operating near their breakeven zone, adding fragility to the broader risk landscape.

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JPMorgan Chase & Co
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JPMorgan's own quant team warns of rising risk in semiconductor trade, which could affect its trading revenues or client flows, but the warning is about market risk, not a direct hit to JPMorgan.

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