JPMorgan Private Bank’s co-head of global investment strategy Stephen Parker says the 2026 rally has been entirely earnings-driven, with corporate profits up 12% year over year and a base case of 7800 for the S&P 500 by year-end. The bull case target of 8900 requires eight of eleven S&P sectors delivering double-digit earnings growth, not just technology. Parker warns that multiple expansion fueled by animal spirits rather than fundamentals can reverse on a single bad headline. Corporate profits hit $4,392.5 billion in the first quarter of 2026, accelerating from 3.6% year-over-year profit growth in the second quarter of 2025, and JPMorgan Asset Management’s outlook pegs 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth at 13%. Personal consumption reached a record $21.98 trillion annualized rate in April 2026, but the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 49.8, signaling recessionary territory.
JPMorgan Chase & CoJPMorgan's strategist highlights strong earnings growth and sets bullish S&P 500 targets, reflecting positively on the bank's investment banking and asset management outlook.