June CPI falls 0.4%, first negative print since May 2020

MacroCommodity Impact 4

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Summary · why it matters

The Consumer Price Index for June fell 0.4%, a deeper decline than the 0.2% drop analysts expected and a sharp reversal from May's 0.5% increase, marking the first negative monthly reading since May 2020. Core CPI month over month was flat, better than the 0.2% consensus that matched May's unrevised figure. Year over year, headline CPI sank to 3.5%, 30 basis points below estimates and back near March lows after May's 4.2% three-year high. Core CPI year over year also dipped 30 basis points from the 2.9% expected and reported for May, matching March's level. The report showed a 5.7% monthly drop in oil prices, driven by a 21% decline in global crude prices after a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding normalized Mideast oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz.