June exports surge 20.8%, led by electronics, but second-half risks loom from US tariffs

Macro
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Exports in June 2026 expanded 20.8% from a year earlier to 34.6559 billion US dollars, beating analyst forecasts of 16.9%. Industrial goods, especially electronics, which grew 32.5%, were the main driver, while agricultural and agro-industrial products contracted 6.5%. Shipments to the United States continued to expand for a 33rd straight month, rising 44.3%. Imports in the same month jumped 50.3% to 41.1906 billion US dollars, driven by capital goods and raw materials for technology production. However, Krungthai COMPASS assesses that the front-loading of exports is likely to slow in the second half, after the US announced Section 301 actions against trading partners. Thailand faces a 12.5% tariff on goods produced with forced labour, higher than the 10% levied on Indonesia and Malaysia, and faces additional risk from an investigation into excess capacity, as Thailand's manufacturing sector has run at below 60% capacity utilisation for two consecutive years.

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