June Payrolls Miss at 57,000 Raises Rate-Cut Debate for Warsh Fed

Macro Impact 4
โดย 24/7 Wall St.·Read original
Summary · why it matters

American employers added just 57,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, roughly half the 115,000 Dow Jones consensus forecast, while 507,000 workers left the labor force, making the drop in the unemployment rate to 4.2% deeply misleading. The labor force participation rate slid 0.3 percentage point to 61.5%, the lowest since March 2021. Chair Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate at 3.75% for seven months, but core PCE inflation sits near its 12-month high, making any cut a genuine inflation risk. A cut would ease mortgage and credit card rates, while holding steady forces a weakened labor market through another quarter of restrictive policy.

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