Kalshi traders expect the July jobs report to come in slightly cooler than economists' consensus estimate of 85,000 new jobs. They assign a 47% probability that employers added more than 80,000 jobs and a 60% chance they added more than 70,000 jobs. The chance of a beat is lower, with a 41% probability of exceeding 90,000 jobs and just over a one-in-three chance of reaching six figures. Traders also see a one-in-three chance the number falls below 60,000. Last month, Kalshi traders had placed a 63% chance on more than 125,000 jobs in June, but the official figure came in at just 57,000.