Kasikorn Research Center says the situation in the Middle East and the US Federal Reserve's policy rate outlook are the two main factors that will determine the direction of gold prices in the second half of 2026. The global gold price at the end of 2026, based on Bloomberg Consensus analyst forecasts, could recover to around 4,625 US dollars per ounce, equivalent to a Thai gold bar price of about 71,520 baht per baht-weight. However, Kasikorn Research Center views that figure as still sensitive to changes in both factors. If the Middle East situation eases and inflationary pressures subside, the Federal Reserve may not need to rush to signal rate hikes, which would support gold prices moving closer to the forecast. But if the conflict drags on and impacts energy, inflation could accelerate, forcing the Federal Reserve to tighten policy, which would limit gold price gains. Nevertheless, structurally rising gold demand from central banks, with the share of gold in central bank reserves increasing from 14 percent in 2022 to 27 percent in 2025, and average gold purchases by central banks and other institutions rising to 1,018 tonnes per year since 2022, will be key factors supporting gold prices over the medium term.