Kasikorn Securities assesses the SET index today will move in a range of 1,600-1,620 points, with the main pressure coming from Middle East tensions that have pushed crude oil prices continuously higher, and the US Producer Price Index, or PPI, for August, which rose 5.4% year-on-year from 4.8% in July, above the market expectation of 5.3%. As a result, the market has raised the probability that the US Federal Reserve, or Fed, will hike rates at its September meeting to 72.7%, while the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds jumped to 4.93% and the Dollar Index strengthened to 99.0. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, or ECB, raised interest rates by 0.25% as the market expected. The key factor tonight is the release of US August CPI, which the market expects to hold steady at 3.4% year-on-year, with Core CPI expected to slow to 2.4% from 2.5% in July, the last data set before next week's Fed meeting. On the fiscal front, the Ministry of Finance is considering extending the Thai Chai Thai Plus program by another one to two months, with a conclusion expected by the end of September. Currently, more than 40 million people have benefited, over 1.2 million shops have joined, and the program has generated cumulative circulation of more than 150 billion baht. Meanwhile, the House of Representatives voted 338 to 144 to approve the draft budget bill for fiscal year 2570 worth 3.788 trillion baht, before sending it to the Senate for consideration on September 11. The EV Board approved guidelines to restructure excise taxes on electric vehicles into three tiers to encourage manufacturers to invest more and use more domestic parts. For today's strategy, the focus remains on a defensive stance, with stocks expected to post strong second-half 2569 earnings and offering attractive dividend yields. Today's top picks are SC and AWC.
ECB raised interest rates by 0.25% as expected, lifting the ECB policy rate/yield.
Hot US PPI and raised Fed hike odds pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield up to 4.93%.
