CME Group IncHigher probability of rate hikes increases demand for Fed funds futures and options, boosting CME's trading volumes.
Kevin Warsh, sworn in as Federal Reserve chair on May 22, is expected to point the finger at President Donald Trump and his policies for driving U.S. inflation to a three-year high of 4.2% in May. Warsh’s first Federal Open Market Committee meeting as chair comes as core inflation also rose to 2.9%, the highest since September 2025, fueled in part by an Iran-war-driven energy supply disruption after Trump’s decision to attack Iran on February 28. While the FOMC is expected to leave interest rates unchanged today, it is likely to shift from an easing bias to a neutral stance, and the probability of a rate hike by December has climbed to nearly 60% according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Warsh, labeled a monetary hawk, may face pressure to raise rates to combat inflation that is more than double the Fed’s target, even as higher borrowing costs threaten a historically pricey stock market.
CME Group IncHigher probability of rate hikes increases demand for Fed funds futures and options, boosting CME's trading volumes.
Chipotle Mexican Grill IncHigher interest rates raise borrowing costs and may slow consumer spending, pressuring Chipotle's sales and margins.