KGI expects BDMS core profit to rebound strongly in Q3 2026 to 4.51 billion baht

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KGI Securities (Thailand) preliminarily estimates that BDMS will report core profit for the third quarter of 2026 of 4.51 billion baht, up 4.3% year on year and 38.7% quarter on quarter, accounting for 28.0% of its full-year profit forecast. Revenue in July 2026 grew 8% year on year and August rose 10% year on year, bringing third-quarter 2026 revenue growth to an expected 9% year on year, at 29.8 billion baht, or an increase of 9.0% year on year and 15.1% quarter on quarter. Supporting factors came from the high season for medical treatment, the seasonal outbreak of influenza and COVID-19, and a solid recovery in foreign patient numbers, especially from the Middle East, in line with a rise in Middle Eastern tourists of 8.7% in July and 14.9% in August year on year. The gross margin is expected at 35.6%, up from 35.0% in the third quarter of 2025 and 31.2% in the second quarter of 2026. Thailand's wellness market is worth 42.7 billion US dollars, accounting for nearly 8% of GDP, and is expected to grow 7-10% per year over the next two to three years. BDMS aims to raise the share of revenue from the wellness business to 20% by 2035 from 12% in 2025. KGI maintained its 2026 profit forecast at 16.1 billion baht, up 1.7% year on year, and its 2027 forecast at 17.7 billion baht, up 9.8%, while keeping its buy recommendation with a 2027 target price of 23.50 baht.

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