KGI raises KKP target to 145 baht after lifting 2027F profit by 5%

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KGI Securities has raised its target price for KKP shares to 145 baht from 125 baht, maintaining a buy recommendation, after lifting its 2027F profit forecast by a further 5% to reflect fee income growth accelerating to 17% from a previously estimated 8%, and a PE re-rating to 14x from 12.5x, equivalent to a PBV of 1.75x, based on the shift to 2027F estimates. That represents a premium of about 30% over fair PBV, reflecting the ability to lift ROE and a dividend yield as high as 7%. The research team kept its 2026F profit forecast unchanged, assessing that provisioning expenses have passed their peak and are trending down to 1.2-1.3% in the second half of 2026, after provisions rose to 1.46% of loans, supported by lower losses from repossessed vehicles and a 20% year-on-year decline in NPLs in the first half of 2026 across all loan segments, along with the clearing of long-overdue bad debts in the first half of 2026. On the wealth management side, KKP has gained market share, with its high net-worth asset base growing 13% year-to-date, mutual funds and private funds up 14%, and the Dime segment up more than 60%. It has assets under management of more than 1.1 trillion baht, growing at twice the industry average, and revenue from this business accounts for 70% of total non-NII income, or about 30% of total revenue. Meanwhile, investment banking revenue came in at 145 million baht in the first half of 2026, down 16% year-on-year, with the research team assuming IB fees of 312 million baht in 2026F and 350 million baht in 2027F.

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