Kiatnakin Phatra Bank Public Company LimitedKKP
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Financials
Kiatnakin Phatra Bank Public Company LimitedKKP raises Thailand's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% on the AI investment cycle
MacroIndustry
KKP Research, part of the Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group, has raised its forecast for Thailand's economic growth in 2026 to 2.5% from 2.1%, and for 2027 to 2.7% from 2.2%, driven mainly by tourism and by the leap in private investment and exports tied to the global artificial intelligence investment cycle, or AI capex cycle, even as the economy continues to feel the effects of geopolitical factors. KKP Research assesses that the overall Thai economy is entering a fully fledged K-shaped recovery, with the data storage industry and components related to AI infrastructure growing strongly, while the automotive, petrochemical, SME and electrical appliance industries that were once the mainstays remain sluggish. Although the IMF ranks Thailand among the world's four largest exporters of AI-related goods, KKP Research points out that the public and private sectors must urgently address structural challenges to keep economic value added within the country, including moving up the value chain from contract assembly, building on foreign investment inflows, and managing the energy and water resources of AI infrastructure. On monetary policy, KKP Research has cut its 2026 inflation forecast to 1.8% and expects the Monetary Policy Committee to hold the policy rate until the end of 2027, while watching the fiscal impact of energy transition spending, which should become clearly visible in 2027, and trade negotiations with the United States under the ART agreement.