Krungsri Asset Management, or KSAM, says global stock markets moved higher, with the S&P 500 index rising 3.6 percent to a new record high, while the Nasdaq gained 5.1 percent, supported by strong corporate earnings, a recovery in technology stocks, and a slowing US labor market. US nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, against market expectations for an increase of 88,000, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.1 percent, below the forecast of 4.2 percent, and average monthly wages rose just 0.1 percent, easing market concerns about Federal Reserve rate hikes. The CME FedWatch tool lowered the probability of a Fed rate hike at the September meeting from 67 percent to 41 percent. As for second-quarter earnings, about 88 percent of S&P 500 companies have reported, with 86 percent beating estimates, while profits grew 50.4 percent from a year earlier. Excluding Alphabet and Amazon, growth was still 32 percent, with 10 of 11 industry groups posting higher profits, reflecting more broad-based growth. Technology and semiconductor stocks staged a notable recovery, as seen in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, while hopes for an easing of Middle East tensions and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz reduced pressure on energy prices and inflation, improving the investment climate for risk assets. The market expects US corporate earnings to remain a key driver going forward, with third-quarter profit growth forecast at about 27 percent and fourth-quarter growth at 25 percent, putting full-year 2026 earnings on track to expand around 30 percent. Meanwhile, profit growth is broadening from large-cap tech stocks to other sectors, supporting the overall US equity market in the second half. In Thailand, July inflation slowed to 1.95 percent from a year earlier, with the Bank of Thailand expected to keep its policy rate at 1.00 percent throughout the year. Gold prices rose to a seven-week high, while oil prices fell sharply on hopes of easing US-Iran tensions and a resolution in the Strait of Hormuz, before recovering after Iran denied reports of direct talks with the US.
