KTB Recommends Buy on Dip as 10-Year US Bond Yield Nears 5%

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โดย Kaohoon·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS strategists at Krungthai Bank said the 10-year US bond yield rose to test the 4.97% zone amid concerns over the US inflation outlook after energy prices continued to climb. Meanwhile, market players have raised the odds that the Fed will press ahead with rate hikes. Although the 10-year US bond yield risks breaking above the 5.00% zone, the assessment is that at the latest yield level above 4.90%, the break-even yield on the 10-year US bond could be as high as 5.30%, which can accommodate a scenario in which the Fed raises rates three more times. The view is that such Fed rate hikes will ultimately open the way for long-term bond yields to gradually decline, in line with an economic picture and inflation trend that may slow. The Fed also has a chance to cut rates somewhat next year, making gradual purchases of long-term US bonds, focused on buying on dips, still attractive at this time. In the currency market, the dollar gradually strengthened in line with the rise in the 10-year US bond yield, though the gains were slowed somewhat after the euro retained support from rising odds that the ECB will press ahead with rate hikes. Market players are waiting for Friday's US CPI inflation report before making clear adjustments to their positions, leaving the overall dollar index DXY up at the 99.1 level, moving in a range of 98.7 to 99.2. As for gold prices, although the overall mood in financial markets is risk-off, market players' view that major central banks are more likely to press ahead with rate hikes, together with the rise in both the dollar and the 10-year US bond yield, pressured COMEX gold futures for December 2026 delivery down to the 4,350 to 4,360 dollars per ounce zone.

Impact on stocks 2

Financials▲ · 1 stocks
Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited
KTB
± MixedMonetaryrelevance

Krungthai Bank strategists recommend buying long-term US bonds on dips as 10-year yield nears 5%, a macro rate view from the bank's research unit.

Others▲ · 1 stocks
％United States Government Bond 10Y
US-10Y
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

10-year US bond yield rose to test 4.97% on inflation concerns and Fed rate-hike odds, but strategists see the yield eventually declining, making dip-buying attractive.

Off-coverage companies 1

Fast Ejendom Danmark A/SPrivate± Mixed
relevance

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