Leading Indicators for July US Jobs Report Slow, Consumer Employment Outlook Hits Lowest Since February 2021
Macro
Leading indicators for the July US employment report are pointing to a cooling labor market. The ADP employment report showed an increase of 44,000 from the previous month, missing expectations and marking the slowest growth since January. The ISM services employment index fell to 47.4, slipping into contraction territory for the first time since March. JOLTS job openings also declined to 7.359 million. The Conference Board's consumer confidence survey showed the gap between those saying jobs are 'plentiful' and those saying jobs are 'hard to get' narrowed to 3.1, the lowest since February 2021, signaling that consumers are turning more pessimistic about the job market. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims indicate that layoffs remain limited. For the July jobs report, the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.2 percent, with nonfarm payrolls forecast to rise by 80,000 from the previous month.
