Major Brokerages Expect Further U.S. Rate Hikes This Year; BofA Sees 0.5% Total

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After the Federal Reserve decided on its first rate hike in three years and two months and signaled further tightening ahead, major brokerages expect at least one more rate increase before the end of the year. The Fed decided on the hike at its Federal Open Market Committee meeting on the 15th and 16th. While many major brokerages expect one more hike in December, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Global Research see the next hike coming as early as October, with BofA the only brokerage forecasting an additional 50 basis points of tightening by year-end. According to CME's FedWatch, the market is pricing in roughly a 90% probability of an additional 25 basis point hike this year. In their 2026 outlooks, BofA sees two 50 basis point moves taking the federal funds target rate to 4.25%-4.50%, while Goldman Sachs sees one 25 basis point move to 4.00%-4.25%. JPMorgan, Nomura, HSBC, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS Global Research, Morgan Stanley, Macquarie, BNP Paribas and Standard Chartered all see one 25 basis point move to 4.00%-4.25%. Citigroup expects no policy change, leaving the rate at 3.75%-4.00%.

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