US refining stocks are rallying at full speed, with Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy both more than doubling in value since the start of 2026, driven by an unusually sharp surge in global refining margins as disruptions have reduced capacity and tightened fuel supplies. The two refiners delivered combined profits of around $8.8 billion in the second quarter of 2026, topping Wall Street expectations, and a Barron's report suggests more upside remains. Marathon, the largest US refiner by volume, doubled its refining margins in the second quarter, helping drive an almost four-fold increase in profits, while Valero benefits from an arbitrage opportunity for jet fuel exports to Europe. Both companies are also expected to repurchase about 20% of their market value between Q3 and the end of next year, according to TD Cowen's Jason Gabelman. However, a major risk is that investors may be assuming the exceptionally strong margins will persist, as crack spreads could normalize quickly if supplies recover, and both stocks have already surged over 110% since the beginning of 2026.
Marathon Petroleum CorpProfits nearly quadrupled on doubled refining margins and buybacks expected
Valero Energy CorporationBenefits from jet fuel export arbitrage to Europe and strong margins
Chevron Corp