Markets Price 91% Odds of First Fed Rate Hike Since 2023

MacroDigital FinanceCommodity Impact 5
โดย 24/7 Wall St·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Markets now assign a 90.7% probability to a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, a sharp reversal from expectations at the start of 2026 for a third cut of the year. A Reuters September 14 poll found 85% of economists expect the Fed to raise its target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Inflation has remained 140 basis points above the Fed's 2% target, with August headline CPI up 3.4% year over year, core CPI up 2.4%, and PPI up 5.4%, while Brent crude reached $107.82 and West Texas Intermediate hit $102.82 after renewed attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure. The August employment report showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, versus just 21,000 in July and a 12-month average of 30,900, removing the justification for tolerating higher inflation. The July meeting left rates unchanged, though three policymakers preferred a quarter-point increase, and the next meeting is scheduled for September 15-16. Reuters' September 14 economist poll found many expect at least one additional hike by March 2027, with the 10-year Treasury yield recently approaching 5% and the 30-year yield above 5.3%.

Impact on stocks 4

Carbon Removal (DAC)▲ · 1 stocks
CME Group Inc
CME
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

CME Group's FedWatch tool is cited as the source of the 90.7% rate-hike probability, highlighting demand for its rate-hedging products.

Others▲ · 3 stocks
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