Markets See Warsh Endorsing September Rate Hike, But Skeptics Remain

MacroDigital Finance Impact 4

โดย CNBC·

Summary · why it matters

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium has led markets to price in a high probability of a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, with odds jumping to 66.1% from nearly half that before his remarks. However, some observers, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, argue that the hype is unjustified, citing restrained core inflation and a supply shock that traditionally does not warrant a rate increase. Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst noted that Warsh's comments were only marginally more hawkish and that data since the July meeting show cooler inflation and softer hiring, making a September hike unlikely. JPMorgan Asset Management's David Kelly echoed this, saying markets may have been premature in assigning a 60% probability to a hike, while Bank of America holds to its call for three increases, viewing Warsh's speech as showing a more credible Fed.

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