Merck Bets on Tripled Pipeline and New Drugs to Offset 2028 Keytruda Patent Loss

IndustryProduct / Tech
โดย Zacks Investment Research·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Merck is relying on a growing pipeline and an expanding portfolio of newer medicines, including acquired assets, to offset the eventual loss of exclusivity for its blockbuster cancer drug Keytruda. Keytruda generated sales of $16.40 billion in the first half of 2026, up nearly 4.2% year over year, and is expected to remain strong until it loses patent exclusivity in 2028, after which biosimilars entering around 2028-2029 are likely to drive a sharp decline. Merck's phase III pipeline has almost tripled since 2021, and the company expects to launch 20 new drugs by 2030, with newer products already emerging as growth drivers: pulmonary arterial hypertension drug Winrevair and 21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine Capvaxive generated $1.1 billion and $325 million, respectively, in first-half 2026 sales, while cancer drug Welireg sales surged 57% year over year to $470 million. Merck expects more than $70 billion of potential non-risk-adjusted commercial opportunity for the current pipeline by the mid-2030s, more than double the peak consensus sales estimate for Keytruda of $35 billion in 2028, and has stepped up acquisitions ahead of the patent expiry with deals for Verona Pharma, Cidara Therapeutics and Terns Pharmaceuticals. Management expects the Keytruda LOE period to look like a shallow dip with a fast return back to growth, even as Keytruda faces competition from Bristol Myers' Opdivo, Roche's Tecentriq and AstraZeneca's Imfinzi.

Impact on stocks 5

Biotech & Genomic Medicine · 3 stocks
Merck & Company Inc
MRK
▲ PositiveTechnologyCapitalrelevance

Merck's phase III pipeline nearly tripled since 2021 with 20 new drug launches expected by 2030 to offset Keytruda's 2028 patent loss.

Critical Materials & Supply Chain · 1 stocks
Health Care · 1 stocks

Theme Impact 4

Off-coverage companies 1

Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc.Private▲ Positive
Capitalrelevance

Terns Pharmaceuticals is named as one of Merck's acquisition targets ahead of the Keytruda patent expiry.

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