Microsoft Options Imply a 29% Drop or 43% Rally as AI Spending Fuels Uncertainty

Price Action

โดย Yahoo Finance·Read original

Summary · why it matters

Microsoft shares are pricing in a potential 29% decline to $280 or a 43% surge to $565 over the next year, according to options market data. Implied volatility for one-year options stands at 37%, well above the stock's recent realized volatility of 27%, indicating traders are bracing for an outsized move. The uncertainty centers on the company's planned $190 billion in capital expenditures for calendar 2026, aimed at expanding its AI business, which recently hit a $37 billion annual run rate. While bulls point to over 20 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats as evidence of demand, bears worry about a disconnect between soaring capex and revenue growth. Traders are currently paying about 1.7 times more for upside calls than downside protection, reflecting a mild bullish tilt.