Microsoft's OpenAI deal revision and Azure growth fuel bull case amid 22% YTD drop

EarningsProduct / Tech Impact 4
โดย Insider Monkey·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Microsoft shares are down 22 percent year-to-date, but bulls argue the stock is a buy over hype-driven names like SpaceX. A key catalyst is the April 2026 revision to Microsoft's agreement with OpenAI, which eliminates the obligation to pay 20 percent of Azure OpenAI Service and Bing revenue to OpenAI, lifting projected gross margins from 76.11 percent to 82.35 percent. Beyond OpenAI, Azure revenue rose 40 percent year-over-year in fiscal Q3 2026, marking the fourth straight quarter of 40 percent-plus growth, while Azure OpenAI enterprise customers climbed 63 percent to 80,000. The market share gap between Azure and AWS has narrowed from 23 percentage points in 2021 to just 9 points, and Microsoft plans to boost data center supply capacity by 80 percent in fiscal 2026 and double its data center count over the next two years. Copilot paid seats surged 250 percent to 20 million, generating roughly 7.2 billion dollars in annualized revenue at 360 dollars per user.

Impact on stocks 3

Artificial Intelligence · 2 stocks
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT
▲ PositiveCapitalDemandrelevance

Revised OpenAI deal lifts gross margins from 76.11% to 82.35%, and Azure revenue grew 40% YoY.

Cloud & Digital Infrastructure · 1 stocks

Theme Impact 6

Off-coverage companies 1

OpenAIPrivate▼ Negative
Capitalrelevance

Revised deal eliminates Microsoft's obligation to pay 20% of Azure OpenAI Service and Bing revenue to OpenAI, reducing OpenAI's revenue stream.

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