Microsoft CorporationMassive $190B capex plan and uncertainty about free cash flow conversion weigh on stock.
Microsoft shares have traded below the key 200-day moving average for all of 2026, even as SpaceX made a sizzling public-market debut. The stock is down 19% year to date, compared with a 10% gain for the S&P 500. At one point after Monday's close, SpaceX shares climbed as high as $229.40, briefly suggesting a valuation above $3 trillion, while Microsoft's market cap was around $2.9 trillion. Hesitance to buy the dip stems from concerns over Microsoft's $190 billion capital expenditures plan for 2026, a roughly 61% jump from the prior year, and uncertainty about when that massive infrastructure investment will convert into measurable free cash flow growth. Additionally, Microsoft faces ongoing worries that its business worker applications, such as Office 365, may be disrupted by artificial intelligence competition like Anthropic's Claude Cowork, fueled by the perception that Copilot functionality lags other AI tools.
Microsoft CorporationMassive $190B capex plan and uncertainty about free cash flow conversion weigh on stock.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common StockHot public-market debut with shares climbing to $229.40, implying over $3T valuation.
Claude Cowork perceived as superior to Microsoft's Copilot, benefiting Anthropic.