Economist Mohamed El-Erian maintains that the most probable scenario is no Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026, even as markets price in roughly 1.5 hikes over the coming year. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 34% probability of a hike at the July 29 meeting, with cumulative tightening expectations extending into 2027. El-Erian points to a favorable inflation trajectory, improving supply-side dynamics, and the likelihood of the Fed shifting toward a more forward-looking policy stance. His view contrasts with several Fed watchers who have raised their forecasts, with at least one projecting three hikes this year.