Morgan StanleyMorgan Stanley's own analyst team raised the humanoid shipment forecast, which is a positive analyst call for the sector and reflects favorably on the firm's research credibility.
Morgan Stanley has significantly upgraded its 2026 unit forecast for Chinese humanoid shipments, raising the estimate to 50,000 units from 28,000. Looking further ahead, analysts project that shipments will soar to 446,000 units by 2030. This rapid acceleration is being driven by strong policy support, positive supply-chain feedback, and successful commercial verification, with an increasing number of Chinese companies now targeting late 2026 to begin mass production. The third quarter of the year is shaping up to be a pivotal period for the sector, with upcoming catalysts including the potential unveiling of the Optimus Gen 3 from Tesla and planned initial public offerings for key humanoid integrators. On the pricing front, the industry is experiencing broad cost deflation, but Morgan Stanley anticipates a slight bump in the blended average selling price between 2027 and 2028, driven by a higher adoption rate of premium, full-size humanoid models, before average prices ultimately resume their decline toward the end of the decade.
Morgan StanleyMorgan Stanley's own analyst team raised the humanoid shipment forecast, which is a positive analyst call for the sector and reflects favorably on the firm's research credibility.
Tesla IncThe article mentions upcoming potential unveiling of Tesla's Optimus Gen 3 as a catalyst, which is a positive product development for Tesla.