Morgan Stanley's Nowak Sees 25% Meta Upside to $815 by 2026

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โดย 24/7 Wall St.·US·Read original
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Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak has set a $815 price target on Meta Platforms for year-end 2026, implying roughly 25% upside from the stock's current $651.98 level and sitting comfortably above the $754.15 consensus analyst target. Nowak's bullish case rests on AI already lifting Meta's core ad engine, citing Q2 ad impressions up 14%, average price per ad up 12%, an 8.3% lift in ad clicks from new AI ranking work, and a 15.7% conversion uplift on Facebook, while Advantage Plus end-to-end tools now run at over $75 billion in annual revenue run rate. Meta reported Q2 ad revenue of $59.36 billion, up 27%, alongside 3.60 billion daily active people, and the company ran $26.25 billion in 2025 buybacks while paying a $1.35 billion quarterly dividend. Reaching $815 would imply a market cap near $1.80 trillion, up from $1.44 trillion today, requiring Meta to beat the 2027 consensus EPS of $33.95, hold Q4 revenue near the $73.66 billion analyst average, and show operating leverage as its $130 to $145 billion 2026 capex begins producing enterprise AI revenue. The primary risk is capex intensity compressing near-term free cash flow, already visible in Q2's collapse to $784 million from $8.55 billion a year earlier.

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