Millions of U.S. homebuyers who banked on falling mortgage rates to refinance into lower payments are finding themselves stuck with high costs as rates remain above 6%. The 'marry the house, date the rate' mantra has left many in tough financial positions, with 56% of recent buyers counting on future rate drops to ease their budgets, according to a 2025 Truework survey. Mortgage rates have hovered between 6% and 8% since September 2022, and forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association see them staying above 6.3% through 2026. Experts warn that stretching a budget now in hopes of refinancing later carries significant risks, including the possibility that rates don't fall enough to justify closing costs, income drops during a recession, or home values decline and erode equity. Buyers are advised to purchase homes they can afford under current terms and treat any future refinance as a bonus, not a necessity.
Fannie MaeArticle discusses Fannie Mae's mortgage rate forecast, showing rates staying above 6.3% through 2026, which negatively impacts its business outlook.