Nebius Falls 23% in September as Arete Research Sees 96% Upside

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โดย 247wallst.com·

Summary · why it matters

Nebius Group shares have dropped 23.58% over the past month, sliding from $277.68 on August 14 to $212.19, even as Arete Research reiterated a Buy rating and raised its price target to $415 from $380, implying roughly 96% upside. The pullback followed a blistering run that still leaves the stock up 153.5% year to date, and it came alongside a broad neocloud selloff in which CoreWeave fell 21.17% to $82.98 and Applied Digital dropped 21.22% to $24.58. Nebius reported Q2 2026 revenue of $582.3 million, up 454% year over year and ahead of the $574.65 million consensus, with GAAP EPS of -$0.68 beating the -$0.8633 estimate, while its AI Cloud segment posted a 50% adjusted EBITDA margin. The bull case rests on $37.5 billion in remaining performance obligations, which management described as $40 billion in contracted backlog on the Q2 call, supported by multi-year hyperscaler agreements with Microsoft and Meta and scaling past 1 GW of connected power. Management reiterated 2026 guidance of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion in revenue, $7 billion to $9 billion in year-end ARR, and roughly 40% adjusted EBITDA margin, though investors have focused on 12.7 million ATM shares issued at an average $223.60, an $8.13 billion H1 capex bill, and customer concentration with three customers at 24%, 21%, and 14% of Q2 revenue.

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