Nikkei 225 seen range-bound, with Japan and US central bank meetings and AI earnings as the decisive moment

Macro

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Summary · why it matters

The base-case scenario for the Nikkei 225 in the near term is a range-bound market between 58,000 and 70,000 yen, according to a view presented. Last Friday, the 24th, the Nikkei 225 closed at 64,611 yen, up 470 yen from the previous week and rising for the first time in three weeks, but it traced a long upper shadow in a round trip that lacked direction. This week brings the US FOMC meeting on the 28th and 29th, the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting on the 30th and 31st, and a succession of earnings from US hyperscalers such as Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon, making it a decisive moment for gauging the market's direction. While caution over rising interest rates in Japan and the US and the sustainability of AI investment weighs on sentiment, upside resistance is seen at 68,889 yen, corresponding to a PER of around 19 times, and downside support at 58,264 yen, a 20 percent pullback from the high.