NVIDIA Options Market Prices a 68% Chance the Stock Lands Between $135 and $307 in a Year

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โดย Yahoo Finance·Read original

Summary · why it matters

The options market is pricing a 68% probability that NVIDIA stock will finish the next year between a floor near $135 and a ceiling near $307.11, implying a potential 34% drop or a 51% climb from its current price of about $203.28. Implied volatility on NVIDIA options stands at 43%, which is 1.2 times the stock's realized volatility of 36% over the past year and sits in the 67th percentile of its one-year range, signaling elevated uncertainty. The wide range reflects execution risk around the company's next major platform, VeraRubin, set to begin production shipments in the third quarter, following what management called the fastest product ramp in its history with the Blackwell platform that drove data center revenue up 92% year over year. Traders are paying about 1.5 times more for upside calls than for downside puts, indicating a slight lean toward optimism, but the dominant story remains the size of the priced move in both directions.