NVIDIA Pivots to CPUs, Targeting a $200 Billion Market as China Revenue Fades

Jim Cramer said Broadcom CEO Hock Tan told him demand for AI compute infrastructure remains extremely strong and durable, with the custom chip designer holding more orders than almost anybody other than Jensen Huang. Cramer's remarks on CNBC center on whether Broadcom can keep capturing custom AI chip orders, and the third quarter earnings released on September 2nd support the growth narrative, with revenue up 86%, AI semiconductor revenue up 221%, and fiscal year 2026 guidance implying 186% annual AI revenue growth. Tan reaffirmed that Broadcom could pull in $115 billion in annual AI chip sales in 2027 and $230 billion in 2028. Still, the fiscal fourth quarter guide left investors wanting more, with $34.8 billion in revenue missing analyst estimates of $35.03 billion and gross margin guided at 73%, a five point annual drop due to a higher mix of XPU sales. Estimates suggest 71% of Broadcom's fiscal 2027 and 2028 XPU deployment could rely on OpenAI and Anthropic, meaning a huge portion of orders might come from firms now calling for a slowdown in AI development. In Q2, 170 out of the 1,006 funds tracked by Insider Monkey held a stake in Broadcom, a slight drop from 163 out of 1,022 funds in Q1, with notable exits including Third Point and Two Sigma Advisors, and the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 18 versus NVIDIA's 23.42.

S&P 500 earnings are expected to increase by +24% from the same period last year in the third quarter, the 8th straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index, according to Zacks Investment Research. Earnings are expected to be above the year-earlier level for 14 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with 5 sectors expected to enjoy double-digit growth: Aerospace up +159.3%, Energy up +111.9%, Tech up +41.9%, Basic Materials up +31.2%, and Transportation up +15.1%. The Conglomerates sector is the only one expected to have lower earnings in Q3 relative to the same period last year, down 35.4%, while Consumer Staples earnings are expected to be flat. Excluding the Energy sector, Q3 earnings growth for the S&P 500 drops to +20% from +24%, and excluding the Tech sector, growth for the rest of the index drops to +14.4%. Nvidia's Q3 earnings are expected to increase +90% year-over-year on +91.2% higher revenues, while Micron's year-over-year earnings and revenue growth rates are expected to be +938% and +348.6%, respectively, and Tech sector earnings growth gets cut by slightly more than half once contributions from Nvidia and Micron are excluded. The Q3 earnings season will get the spotlight when the big banks report on October 13th, but the reporting cycle actually got underway with the September 10th quarterly releases from Oracle and Adobe, followed by homebuilder Lennar as the third S&P 500 member to report such Q3 results, with an additional six index members on deck this week including Costco, AutoZone and Darden. Total Q3 earnings for the three S&P 500 members that have reported results already are up +22.6% from the same period last year on +14.9% higher revenues, with 33.3% beating EPS estimates and 66.7% besting revenue estimates.