Nvidia Stock May Be 15% Below Fair Value as AI Debt Risk Grows

UBS now expects artificial intelligence capital expenditure to reach nearly $1 trillion in 2026 before climbing to around $1.4 trillion in 2027, with surging memory costs accounting for most of the increase. The bank's updated estimates put total AI capex at $998 billion this year, almost double the $506 billion recorded in 2025, and forecast spending of $1.447 trillion next year. Memory is emerging as the main source of that growth, with UBS estimating memory spending will climb from $71 billion in 2025 to $367 billion this year and $923 billion in 2027, while other AI-related costs are estimated at $631 billion in 2026 before declining to $525 billion next year. That means higher memory costs will account for about 60% of the increase in AI capex this year and more than the entire net increase in 2027, and across the two years UBS calculates that roughly 90% of the nearly $1 trillion increase in AI capital expenditure between 2025 and 2027 will come from higher memory spending. Memory represented about 14% of total AI capex in 2025, a share the bank estimates will rise to 37% this year and reach 64% in 2027, and UBS said price-driven increases would add relatively little to real U.S. gross domestic product, instead representing a transfer of income and profits toward memory producers in Asia.

Micron Technology and Intel CEOs cautioned that memory chip shortages and higher prices could persist through 2027, with Micron's leadership indicating on a recent call that supply constraints may only start to ease meaningfully from 2028 onward. Intel's CEO echoed the outlook for extended tightness in DRAM and NAND availability, pointing to heavy AI and data center demand. Micron Technology designs and produces memory and storage hardware used in everything from smartphones and PCs to data centers, so long running tightness in DRAM and NAND supply directly touches the products it sells into these markets. As one of the larger US based chip manufacturers by scale, with a reported market value of about $1.1 trillion, its comments on supply conditions can influence how investors think about capacity planning across the wider semiconductor sector. The clearest test of this read will be how Micron's long term customer agreements and utilization plans look through 2027, especially whether the company keeps reporting high take or pay coverage across its AI oriented memory output as new fabs and its 512GB DDR5 modules move toward volume production in the second half of 2027.

Jim Cramer said Broadcom CEO Hock Tan told him demand for AI compute infrastructure remains extremely strong and durable, with the custom chip designer holding more orders than almost anybody other than Jensen Huang. Cramer's remarks on CNBC center on whether Broadcom can keep capturing custom AI chip orders, and the third quarter earnings released on September 2nd support the growth narrative, with revenue up 86%, AI semiconductor revenue up 221%, and fiscal year 2026 guidance implying 186% annual AI revenue growth. Tan reaffirmed that Broadcom could pull in $115 billion in annual AI chip sales in 2027 and $230 billion in 2028. Still, the fiscal fourth quarter guide left investors wanting more, with $34.8 billion in revenue missing analyst estimates of $35.03 billion and gross margin guided at 73%, a five point annual drop due to a higher mix of XPU sales. Estimates suggest 71% of Broadcom's fiscal 2027 and 2028 XPU deployment could rely on OpenAI and Anthropic, meaning a huge portion of orders might come from firms now calling for a slowdown in AI development. In Q2, 170 out of the 1,006 funds tracked by Insider Monkey held a stake in Broadcom, a slight drop from 163 out of 1,022 funds in Q1, with notable exits including Third Point and Two Sigma Advisors, and the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 18 versus NVIDIA's 23.42.