Olas unveiled a new AI model Tuesday that was trained on more than 200,000 prediction market forecasts and matched OpenAI's GPT-4.1 in a test of its ability to predict real-world events. Olas-Predict-R1-14B achieved 75.8% accuracy across 2,628 previously unseen markets, compared with 75.4% for GPT-4.1 and 71.4% for the underlying DeepSeek model, according to benchmark materials shared with Benzinga. Olas, which develops autonomous AI agents that research and trade on prediction markets, trained the model using 214,529 forecasts from 5,116 resolved markets, and fine-tuning improved the model's Brier score by roughly 20%. David Minarsch, CEO of Valory and founding member of Olas, told Benzinga the results suggest cheaper, specialized AI models are putting increasing economic pressure on the industry's most advanced general-purpose systems, and said frontier models may need to find new markets to maintain their growth rates. Olas says its model can run on a single GPU and its weights are publicly available, letting developers run it themselves instead of paying a closed AI provider for each forecast. In a separate experiment requested by Benzinga, Olas-Predict gave Nvidia a 70% chance of ending 2026 as the world's largest company by market capitalization, while Polymarket traders currently put Nvidia at 78%.
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