Palo Alto Networks faces margin pressure as Fortinet gains ground in SASE

Fortinet's modeled fair value has been reset from US$119.92 to US$163.13, according to Simply Wall St, as analysts lifted their price targets on strong demand. Several firms, including TD Cowen, BTIG, RBC Capital, Barclays, UBS, and Citi, raised their Fortinet price targets into a US$170 to US$215 range, citing strong Q2 results, billings and product trends, and AI-related demand for networking and security. Morgan Stanley upgraded Fortinet to Equal Weight from Underweight with a higher US$133 target, saying hardware demand tied to AI preparedness had been underestimated. On the bearish side, Wedbush and Wells Fargo flagged valuation as a key watchpoint, with Wedbush arguing the stock already reflects a best-case scenario, while HSBC and JPMorgan stayed cautious with Reduce and Underweight ratings respectively, HSBC carrying a US$102 target. The fair-value model's revenue growth assumption rose from 11.69% to 13.25%, its net profit margin from 27.17% to 29.57%, its future P/E from 36.45x to 45.46x, and its discount rate from 8.54% to 8.58%.

The fair value estimate for Palo Alto Networks has been raised from US$336.70 to US$395.38, a roughly 17% increase in the underlying model, after a wave of analyst price target hikes. RBC Capital, Wells Fargo, BofA, Morgan Stanley and Truist lifted their targets into the low to mid US$400s, citing stronger cybersecurity demand as AI usage expands and customers consolidate spending with larger platforms. Goldman Sachs, Oppenheimer, BTIG and Susquehanna pointed to solid Q4 results and guidance, with broad based strength across firewalls, SASE, observability, identity and AI security modules. On the bearish side, Bernstein and Phillip Securities moved to more neutral stances while still raising targets, and Stephens and UBS described the risk or reward as more balanced with shares near peak valuation levels. The updated model trims the revenue growth assumption to about 17.31% from about 19.09% and the net profit margin outlook to about 13.84% from about 14.51%, while the future P/E rises to about 197.87x from about 164.67x and the discount rate adjusts to about 8.60% from 8.40%.

Palo Alto Networks said its SASE bookings grew 40% in fiscal 2026, with the company displacing legacy vendors in nearly 100 customer accounts representing more than $400 million in total contract value, roughly double the prior year's displacement volume. Management said PANW is currently the No. 2 player in SASE and aims to become the market leader over the next five to seven years, helped by integrating SASE with its firewall and SD-WAN products so existing customers can standardize on one vendor. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, a global telecom leader signed a $126 million agreement to expand its next-generation firewall footprint while replacing legacy proxy providers with Prisma Access for SASE, and agentic traffic on the company's SASE platform has increased 9x over the past nine months. Rival Fortinet said its SASE Firewall business grew 34% in the second quarter of 2026 to more than $2 billion, while Unified SASE billings rose 35%, and Zscaler reported ARR up 25% year over year in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. Palo Alto Networks shares have jumped 104.1% year to date versus a 92.6% gain for the Zacks Security industry, and the stock trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 21.31X against an industry average of 19.13X.