Chevron CorpCVX
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Chevron CorpChevron CorpPantheon Macroeconomics warned that the U.S. economy's second-quarter resilience could fade rapidly as a temporary consumer boost disappears and artificial-intelligence spending masks weakness across much of the private sector. Real GDP increased at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2, down from 2.1% in Q1, but final sales to private domestic purchasers surged 3.9% and consumer spending rebounded to 3.2% from 0.5%. Pantheon argues the spending rebound relied partly on a temporary cash boost from this year's OBBBA-boosted round of income tax refunds that is now fading, while the personal saving rate fell to 2.7% in June from 3% in May, leaving consumers with less room to absorb higher gasoline prices and weak income growth. Business investment remains increasingly dependent on technology, with software and intellectual-property spending rising 10.8% while structures investment fell 4.3% for its tenth consecutive decline, and AI-linked industries have accounted for all year-over-year fixed-investment growth for seven straight quarters. The firm expects GDP growth to slow to roughly 1% in Q3 before improving modestly to 1.5% in Q4.
Chevron Corp