Prediction market traders now see roughly a one-in-four chance that Paramount Skydance's bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery will fail. On Kalshi, traders assign a 74% likelihood that Paramount will acquire Warner Bros. by July 2027, with 22% odds that no deal goes through by that date. Before California and 11 other states sued to block the merger on July 13, odds of success were over 80%, but they fell to as low as 66% on July 24 when Paramount announced it would delay the acquisition to 2027. On Polymarket, odds are a similar 23% that no acquisition succeeds by June 30, 2027. The merger's termination date is March 4, 2027, automatically extending to June 4, 2027 if only regulatory obstacles remain, and a federal judge has set a March 2027 trial date for the states' lawsuit.
Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common StockLawsuit by states and delay reduce odds of acquiring Warner Bros.
Warner Bros Discovery IncMerger faces regulatory lawsuit and lower success odds.
