Thailand's economy expanded 1.9% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, slowing from the previous quarter. The National Economic and Social Development Council raised its 2026 growth forecast to 2.0% to 2.5%, with a midpoint of 2.2%, driven by strong export expansion and private investment. Krungthai COMPASS expects growth in the second half of 2026 to slow under multiple pressures: the unresolved Middle East conflict keeping global energy prices above last year's levels, weighing on living costs and purchasing power; uncertainty over US trade measures; and the impact of El Niño on farm output and incomes. However, the wave of foreign investment should support Thai private investment going forward, as Thailand draws more attention from foreign investors. The country should therefore accelerate efforts to raise local content to meet rules of origin requirements, create quality jobs, and benefit from the investment inflows heading to Thailand.
