Ray Dalio Says AI Boom Is a Bubble, Warns of 1920s-Style Bust

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Billionaire investor Ray Dalio said Wednesday that the artificial intelligence boom is a bubble, warning in a post on X that it follows the same historical pattern as past technology manias. The Bridgewater Associates founder pointed to the late 1920s, when electricity, refrigeration, telephones, radio, airplanes and cars all emerged at once, and said the danger is that people fail to distinguish the miracle from the investment tied to it, since a transformative technology can still crash if its stocks are priced too high or bought with borrowed money, as happened in the 1929-1933 bust. Dalio said those same dynamics apply to AI today, adding that "we are now in a bubble," and that investors must judge who truly benefits, whether the technology generates real returns, and whether current valuations reflect excessive optimism. His warning comes as Amazon.com, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta Platforms double down on infrastructure, with U.S. hyperscalers on pace to spend roughly $916 billion on capital expenditures over the next 12 months, a figure Apollo Global Management's Torsten Slok said puts data-center capex on track to reach 3.1% of U.S. GDP by 2027, nearly three times the peak share telecom investment reached during the dot-com buildout. Nvidia is further fueling that buildout by acting as a "buyer of last resort" and partnering with Wall Street to help finance customers' data centers.

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