Russia's central bank will decide at Friday's meeting whether to pause its rate-cutting cycle, with the choice likely coming down to holding the policy rate at 14% or trimming it by a modest 0.25% to 13.75%, amid rising inflation risks from fuel supply problems and accelerating government spending. Russia's annual inflation has picked up again to 6.3% after increased attacks on oil refineries, which have worsened fuel shortages and pushed up gasoline prices. Alexei Zabotkin, deputy governor of the Russian central bank, said fuel-related effects have added roughly 1.5 percentage points to price growth, and the central bank will not have new forecasts until October. President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, said the high policy rate is a deliberate and necessary decision to preserve macroeconomic stability, in contrast to July, when he twice signalled that rates should be lower. Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the Russian central bank to hold rates at this meeting, with only 3 of 11 expecting a 0.25% cut to 13.75%. Herman Gref, chief executive of Sberbank, said the central bank may take a tactical pause while it assesses the situation, but could still cut rates to 13-13.5% by the end of the year, and that the economy will only begin to see meaningful easing once rates fall to 10-12%.
Bank expected to hold the policy rate at 14% rather than cut, keeping yields elevated and bond prices under pressure.
Sberbank CEO Gref comments on a possible tactical pause and year-end cuts to 13-13.5%, a mixed signal for the bank.
