Ryanair CEO O'Leary Warns of Sharp Airfare Hikes if Oil Stays High

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Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary warned Thursday that airfares could rise sharply if oil prices remain elevated into next year, adding uncertainty to the airline's second-half pricing outlook. Speaking to reporters at the company's annual general meeting, O'Leary said Ryanair expects pricing to be modestly lower in its second quarter, which runs from July to September, but that the December and March quarters remain uncertain. Brent crude was trading above $100 a barrel on Thursday as Middle East tensions weighed on energy markets, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 1.4% to $97.40 a barrel, and IATA's Jet Fuel Price Monitor put jet fuel at $171 a barrel in the week ended September 4, a 90% jump versus the prior year's average. Ryanair's hedging positions cover its 2027 fuel at $67 a barrel and lock in 15% of 2028 requirements at $85 a barrel, an extension the airline made using a brief ceasefire-related dip in oil prices. The airline's first-quarter profit fell 34% to €538 million for the three months through June 30, as unhedged jet fuel prices soared and the start of the U.S.-Iran war in late February prompted travelers to delay bookings, forcing Ryanair to lower fares; passenger fares dropped 6% year-on-year while total revenue edged up just 1% to €4.38 billion despite a 6% rise in traffic to 61.3 million passengers, and operating costs rose 11% to €3.81 billion. Ryanair declined to issue a full-year profit forecast, saying visibility into second-half bookings remained limited and that final results would depend on close-in booking strength and remain sensitive to further escalation of the Middle East conflict, unhedged fuel prices, and broader economic conditions.

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The U.S.-Iran war and Middle East tensions prompted travelers to delay bookings, forcing Ryanair to lower fares and cutting Q1 profit 34%.

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