S&P 500 historically rallies after largest monthly CPI drop in five years

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The S&P 500 has historically posted stronger returns after the largest month-over-month decline in U.S. inflation in more than five years, according to Jason Goepfert, markets editor at NextGen News. The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 3.5% year-over-year in June, below the 3.8% expectation, and fell 0.4% on a monthly basis versus a 0.1% consensus decline. Goepfert shared data identifying 21 such signals since 1948, showing the S&P 500 averaged a 5.2% gain over the following three months and 7.2% over six months, with positive outcomes 85% of the time in both periods. Average returns reached 7.8% after nine months and 9.9% after 12 months, with an 80% positivity rate.

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