The S&P 500's unbroken July winning streak since 2014 is at risk as a cluster of market-moving events looms in the second half of the month. The index has averaged a 2.5% gain in July since 2005, more than four times the advance in other months, but this year's seasonal strength confronts worries over corporate earnings, key inflation data, and a Federal Reserve rate decision. Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group, expects a strong first two weeks followed by hedging demand ahead of August and September, historically the weakest months, with potential disappointment from Magnificent Seven earnings acting as another catalyst for selling. The S&P 500 has notched 24 records so far in 2026, and CFRA data show that when such strong first halves occurred, the index gained another 6% on average over the next six months, though fallout from the Iran war, rising interest rates, and midterm elections add uncertainty. Options markets are bracing for a 0.8% swing on Thursday's jobs report, while JPMorgan and other banks kick off earnings on July 14 alongside a CPI report, followed by the Fed's rate decision on July 29.
JPMorgan Chase & CoJPMorgan kicks off earnings on July 14, a market-moving event.
Citigroup Inc.
Bank of America Corp
Invesco Plc