S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio Surpasses 40, a Level Seen Only During the Dot-Com Bubble

Macro
โดย The Motley Fool·Read original
Summary · why it matters

The S&P 500 Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio has risen above 40 and now sits just over 41, a level previously sustained only from January 1999 to September 2000 during the dot-com bubble. The ratio, which tracks 10-year inflation-adjusted earnings, has a long-term average of about 17 and has been hovering near 40 for close to a year, but it has consistently stayed above 40 since May 2026. While this does not guarantee a bubble-like collapse, history shows stock prices tend to fall in the years after the ratio peaks. Investors are also growing pessimistic, with 42% expecting the market to fall in the next six months according to an American Association of Individual Investors survey, even as major indexes just posted their best quarter in years.

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