S&P 500 surges 15% in Q2 2026, but Shiller CAPE ratio hits 41x

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โดย Zacks Investment Research·Read original

Summary · why it matters

The S&P 500 surged 15% in the second quarter of 2026, driven by strong corporate earnings and sustained enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. Aggregate S&P 500 earnings rose more than 25% year-over-year in the first quarter, and analysts project nearly 24% growth for the second quarter. Technology and semiconductor companies led the rally, with AI-related demand boosting firms such as Sandisk, Micron Technology, Nvidia, Broadcom, Advanced Micro Devices, Taiwan Semiconductor, Arista Networks, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft. However, the Shiller CAPE ratio has climbed to approximately 41 times, a level historically associated with below-average long-term returns and increased vulnerability to corrections. The market enters the second half of the year with strong momentum, but elevated valuations leave little room for disappointment if earnings or AI spending slow.