The Economic Intelligence Center of Siam Commercial Bank, or SCB EIC, says the United States is preparing to consider additional Section 301 tariff measures on excess capacity, with Thailand among 16 countries under review, and rates are expected to be announced within September. Dr. Yanyong Thaicharoen, Chief Executive Officer of the Economic Research and Sustainability line at SCB EIC, said the first round of announced rates is likely to be high, just as the United States initially imposed high tariffs on Thailand in the first round before scaling them back to allow for negotiations, meaning Thailand must accelerate talks on this issue. At the same time, Thailand is being watched for its high level of linkage to Chinese supply chains, so it must plan to restructure domestic supply chains to avoid being seen as a transshipment route for goods. Previously, Thailand was hit with a 12.5% US tariff over forced labor. In the first seven months of this year, Thailand's trade surplus with the United States grew further, ranking fifth, compared with tenth in 2024 and seventh in 2025. SCB EIC expects Thai exports to expand 16% in 2026 and 5.5% in 2027.
SCB X Public Company LimitedSCB EIC warns Thailand faces high new US Section 301 tariffs, a trade measure that threatens Thai exports and the bank's home economy.
