JPMorgan Chase & CoJPMorgan projects a $3.7 trillion funding gap, implying higher rates and potential losses on its Treasury holdings.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confronts a $40 trillion federal debt problem as cheap legacy debt rolls over at today's higher rates, pushing federal interest costs past $963 billion in just 10 months. The 10-year Treasury closed at 4.68% and the 30-year at 5.25% on Aug. 14, 2026, while much of the outstanding debt was issued when the 10-year traded below 2%. JPMorgan projects a $3.7 trillion funding gap between 2027 and 2030, and strategists at BNY and UBS doubt Bessent's toolkit can ease long-end pressure. Bessent also coordinated the first US-Japan currency intervention since 2011, protecting Japan's $1.1 trillion Treasury stake from forced liquidation.
JPMorgan Chase & CoJPMorgan projects a $3.7 trillion funding gap, implying higher rates and potential losses on its Treasury holdings.
UBS Group AGUBS strategists doubt Bessent's toolkit can ease long-end pressure, implying higher yields and bond losses.
Rising yields on legacy debt and higher interest costs push the 10-year yield up.
Long-end pressure from refinancing at higher rates drives the 30-year yield up.