Shanghai Main Board Blue Chips Buck the Trend as Earnings Certainty and Stable Dividends Become a Safe Haven

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Recently, blue chips on the Shanghai Stock Exchange main board have bucked the trend and strengthened. China Construction Bank hit an all-time high of 10.73 yuan during trading, while China Merchants Bank's market value returned to the 1 trillion yuan mark. The Shenwan banking sector has risen 11.7% since July, topping all primary industries. Oil and gas, insurance, coal mining, and other blue-chip-heavy sub-sectors posted gains of over 10% over the same period, with PetroChina and Zijin Mining surging more than 20% within the month. The rally in blue chips has shifted to a dual driver of high dividend stability and earnings certainty. Among the 728 Shanghai main board companies that issued earnings forecasts, 66 companies in coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and nonferrous metals expect to achieve net profits of 161.6 billion to 172.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60% to 71%. At the same time, high dividends have become a ballast for capital seeking shelter. Since July, at least 12 Shanghai main board company chairmen or major shareholders have proposed interim profit distributions. Looking at 2025 dividends, 29 main board companies paid annual dividends exceeding 10 billion yuan. Among the 188 companies with cumulative annual dividends above 1 billion yuan, nearly 65% have a dividend yield above 3%. Analysts point out that this market driven by fundamental certainty is an important force for market stability.