SIRI begins to recover, with a fundamental value of 1.64 baht

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Dao Securities estimates SIRI's net profit for the second quarter of 2026 at 958 million baht, down 21 percent from a year earlier but up 11 percent from the previous quarter. Excluding an extraordinary gain from land sales, core profit would be 918 million baht, down 24 percent year-on-year but up 19 percent quarter-on-quarter. The decline in core profit from a year ago is because property business revenue is expected to fall 17 percent, due to slower transfers of low-rise projects and a drop in the property business gross margin to 28.0 percent from the use of promotions to stimulate sales. Meanwhile, core profit rose from the previous quarter off a low base in the first quarter, as transfers recovered 13 percent quarter-on-quarter and the gross margin improved thanks to more transfers of new condominiums. The firm maintains its 2026 core profit forecast at 4.2 billion baht, up 3 percent from a year earlier, with first-half core profit accounting for 40 percent of the full year. The second-half trend should improve from both a year earlier and the first half, driven by higher transfers from new condominium projects and low-rise projects as new launches ramp up. Dao Securities keeps a buy rating with a target price of 1.64 baht, based on a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 6.8 times, which is 0.25 standard deviations below the five-year average. The current valuation is attractive, trading at a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of just 6.4 times, or 0.5 standard deviations below the average, and the firm estimates a first-half dividend similar to last year at 0.05 baht per share.

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Dao Securities maintains buy rating with target price 1.64 baht, citing attractive valuation and dividend estimate.